July 9, 2009...7:53 am

“Be alert AND alarmed” if you remember the TPV

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Paul Kelly sounds a warning in his article in the Australian today. A test for more humane strategy

His warning is to the Rudd government – and even more so to those of us afraid of a return to the horrors of the Temporary Protection Visa. TPV agony

Kelly examines the growing numbers of arrivals of boast of asylum seekers (see Ninemsn discovers some plane facts about boat people) and warns that, in politics,

“numbers dictate results. They determine the public’s mood and they make and break policy. Rudd is about to discover such realities. At this stage nobody knows the threshold at which numbers will demand a revised policy. Rudd’s stance has been a success because the numbers are still manageable.”

Kelly does not want a return to the TPV, which he confirms was unsuccessful at turning back boats, but says that every successful deterrent operation has relied on regional co-operation, and reminds us of the handling of Indo-Chinese boatpeople under the Fraser government.

‘Cassandra’ Kelly prophesies:

“Rudd will respond as a populist if the numbers mount, the system gets overloaded and public alarm intensifies”.

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